Linking missions to scenarios for analysis of military macro-systems

Military Operations Research studies often involve the analysis of structured descriptions of plausible contingencies called ‘scenarios’. While scenarios attempt to provide a sufficient account of an unfolding contingency they do not typically include details of specific types of missions undertaken at the operational level or even the broad roles of the military forces undertaking those missions. Some means of linking key events, decision points and military activities in the chosen scenario to the roles and missions undertaken by a military force was thus sought for recent studies in joint operations. This article discusses a Mission-to-Scenario methodology developed, which provides a repeatable framework to structure the analysis of related problems. Application of the Mission-to-Scenario methodology for military macrosystem analysis may then be used to explore the efficacy of military capabilities, operational effectiveness of specific platforms and the impact of proposed insertion of new technologies or organisational changes. OR Insight (2013) 26, 47–70. doi:10.1057/ori.2012.2; published online 4 April 2012